The Pound-to-euro exchange rate has reached a pivotal level on the charts at the bottom of its long-term range, which reflects the current heightened suspense over Brexit negotiations and the importance of the economic data scheduled for release in the week ahead.
Technical indicators favour a recovery back up towards the range highs but the lack of upside confirmation from actual price action so far – which as been rather tepid – means that a risk remains of a volatile breakdown cannot be ruled out too.
There is a considerable bundle of data and events in the week ahead for Sterling, which suggests it could be a highly volatile time for the currency.
On the political front there will be votes on amendments to the Trade and Customs Bill, which help form the basis of the government’s new ‘softer’ Brexit proposal. These are expected to take place on Monday 16 and Tuesday 17.
They could be critical in gauging whether the plan has a likelihood of success and implementation.
“Another legislative showdown takes place in the UK House of Commons as the Trade and Customs Bills are voted on. Amendments to the bill have come from ‘hard’ Brexiteers (trying to undo the white paper) and Remainers (trying to bind the UK to a customs union). Some of these votes could come down to the wire, and have significant implications for Brexit negotiations,” says Actionforex.com in their week ahead analysis.
Sterling may catch a bid if Brexit supporters in the Conservative party fail in their upcoming attempt to harden the UK government’s plan on leaving the EU, as failure should increase the GBP-positive probability of a relatively soft Brexit.
The Pound-to-euro exchange rate has reached a pivotal level on the charts at the bottom of its long-term range, which reflects the current heightened suspense over Brexit negotiations and the importance of the economic data scheduled for release in the week ahead.
Technical indicators favour a recovery back up towards the range highs but the lack of upside confirmation from actual price action so far – which as been rather tepid – means that a risk remains of a volatile breakdown cannot be ruled out too.
There is a considerable bundle of data and events in the week ahead for Sterling, which suggests it could be a highly volatile time for the currency.
On the political front there will be votes on amendments to the Trade and Customs Bill, which help form the basis of the government’s new ‘softer’ Brexit proposal. These are expected to take place on Monday 16 and Tuesday 17.
They could be critical in gauging whether the plan has a likelihood of success and implementation.
“Another legislative showdown takes place in the UK House of Commons as the Trade and Customs Bills are voted on. Amendments to the bill have come from ‘hard’ Brexiteers (trying to undo the white paper) and Remainers (trying to bind the UK to a customs union). Some of these votes could come down to the wire, and have significant implications for Brexit negotiations,” says Actionforex.com in their week ahead analysis.
Sterling may catch a bid if Brexit supporters in the Conservative party fail in their upcoming attempt to harden the UK government’s plan on leaving the EU, as failure should increase the GBP-positive probability of a relatively soft Brexit.
